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ZDNet: Linux is ready for the long haul

Aug 23, 2001, 01:12 (25 Talkback[s])
"The jury is still out on how Linux will build on its initial proliferation in the enterprise. Linux vendors have consolidated in search of solid ground, but IBM's incarnation of the penguin may portend success in tomorrow's high-speed networks. We asked industry experts how they expect Linux to reach its stride.

Gartner: Linux will threaten but not replace Windows or Unix as the OS that corporations prefer in all server tiers through 2005. Linux will move through three phases of acceptance. In Phase 1, Linux battles for corporate credibility in network services, with early adopters enthused by Linux's robustness and low cost. In Phase 2, Linux gains durable roots--particularly in Web servers and clustered server farms--partly at the expense of Windows 2000 and costly Unix/RISC solutions. In Phase 3, ISV enthusiasm for Linux increases. But Unix's mission-critical scalability and availability, strong Windows 2000 upgrades, and potentially heavy migration costs throttle broad ISV enthusiasm. Increased complexity and insufficient skills will also retard corporate acceptance.

Forrester: With the current economic downturn in the United States, nearly every company is looking for a way to save costs--and few companies have an extra million dollars to spend on a wholesale Windows XP upgrade. Forrester predicts that Linux will displace nearly 15 percent of OS licensing revenues in the average company by 2004--mostly at the expense of Microsoft.

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