ZDNet: Linux is ready for the long haul
Aug 23, 2001, 01:12 (25 Talkback[s])
"The jury is still out on how Linux will build on its
initial proliferation in the enterprise. Linux vendors have
consolidated in search of solid ground, but IBM's incarnation of
the penguin may portend success in tomorrow's high-speed networks.
We asked industry experts how they expect Linux to reach its
stride.
Gartner: Linux will threaten but not replace
Windows or Unix as the OS that corporations prefer in all server
tiers through 2005. Linux will move through three phases of
acceptance. In Phase 1, Linux battles for corporate credibility in
network services, with early adopters enthused by Linux's
robustness and low cost. In Phase 2, Linux gains durable
roots--particularly in Web servers and clustered server
farms--partly at the expense of Windows 2000 and costly Unix/RISC
solutions. In Phase 3, ISV enthusiasm for Linux increases. But
Unix's mission-critical scalability and availability, strong
Windows 2000 upgrades, and potentially heavy migration costs
throttle broad ISV enthusiasm. Increased complexity and
insufficient skills will also retard corporate acceptance.
Forrester: With the current economic downturn
in the United States, nearly every company is looking for a way to
save costs--and few companies have an extra million dollars to
spend on a wholesale Windows XP upgrade. Forrester predicts that
Linux will displace nearly 15 percent of OS licensing revenues in
the average company by 2004--mostly at the expense of
Microsoft.
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