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InfoWorld.com: It's very clear Linux is here to stay, and five major trends are driving the OS

Aug 15, 2000, 20:35 (0 Talkback[s])
(Other stories by Michael Vizard)

[ Thanks to Douglas D. Darnold for this link. ]

"As both a product and a phenomenon, Linux has reached a plateau where it is now considered just another mainstream alternative in the overall market. But if you look behind a lot of the technoeconomic trends that are driving today's market, the odds are pretty good that we're all going to be interacting a lot more with this platform in the future than most of us believe right now."

"In fact, there are five major trends that are likely to drive Linux well beyond its current base of users.

"* Vendor rivalry. If you take a look at the macroeconomic war between Microsoft and its major software rivals, one thing becomes pretty clear: Microsoft is using the revenue stream it derives from Windows and Office to fund its expansion drive into other areas. This means that rival vendors have a compelling interest to weaken that base of power. In short, it is in the strategic interest of Oracle, IBM, and even SAP to push to open free platform alternatives that could ultimately cripple Microsoft's economic engine."

"* Component chaos. In the near future, software is going to devolve to a series of components that can be pulled together at will to create any application. There are obstacles to hurdle, but the days of monolithic applications are numbered. As vendors such as Microsoft move forward with Microsoft.NET or similar technologies, the underlying operating system is less strategic. In addition, the line between what is an element of the operating system and what is an application will continue to blur, and eventually people will not be able to define that difference. Once you establish this model, Windows itself becomes little more than a base platform for hosting component software. The funny thing is that this is how many people already view Linux. So as Microsoft moves in this direction, they continue to validate the Linux development model."

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