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CNET News.com/Gartner: Gartner Surveys Enterprise Operating Systems

Nov 03, 2000, 00:20 (16 Talkback[s])

"Linux acceptance will continue to accelerate, initially in strong niche roles until it scales well enough for broader enterprise applications. Thereafter, Linux revenue will be governed by average server configuration size, average system pricing, DBMS scalability, vendor support/services and IS organization buy-in. We raised our Linux projections by an average of 25 percent in 2003 through 2004 over the previous forecast due to increased vendor commitments and contributions. Linux shipped revenue in 2005 will approach 20 percent of the revenue of Unix and 17 percent of that of Windows."

"While substantial progress will occur, Linux will still face challenges in displacing mature, well-established OS environments that continue to benefit from the research and development resources of Microsoft, Sun Microsystems, Hewlett-Packard and IBM. After a gradual ramp-up through 1H01, Windows 2000 market share will rise sharply as NT v.4 migrations accelerate along with new server deployments, nearly doubling in shipments from 2001 to 2004. Much of the beneficial backlash Linux has gained at Windows NT's expense will dissipate by 2002, forcing the Linux community to refocus and re-energize its campaign for wide corporate acceptance."

"Unix consolidation will accelerate as more users seek improvements in total cost of ownership by reducing the number of Unix variants through competitive bids aimed at the top market share leaders, although special-purpose systems for continuous computing and data warehousing (e.g., Compaq Computer's NonStop, Stratus Computer's Continuum, NCR's Teradata) will remain reasonably profitable niches. The compound annual growth rate of 3.1 percent reflects the shifting balance to modular, commodity-based servers, including the introduction of high-volume IA-64 processors in NUMA architectures. Continued 30 percent to 40 percent price/performance improvements will enable consolidation of distributed systems (in ratios of one application to one server) to higher-end, domain-based servers through better load balancing and workload management."

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