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LinuxToday.com.au: Long Term, We're All Dead Anyway

Aug 07, 2000, 11:35 (8 Talkback[s])
(Other stories by BillBennett)

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"It's worth considering the implications of the IDC Server Operating Environments Market Forecast and Analysis 2000-2004 report that we looked at last week. The numbers point to something important that might not be apparent at first sight."

"If you were to simple-mindedly extrapolate the IDC numbers forward, you'd expect to see Linux server numbers go past Windows some time in 2005 or 2006. But that's a long-term projection. As the economist John Maynard Keynes is supposed to have said, "in the long-term, we're all dead anyway."

"Of course real world markets rarely operates by such simple mechanisms as straight-line projections. That's particularly true when there are real live people, with all kinds of motivations able to act in ways that influence the numbers. More to the point, straight-line trends rarely hold for very long anyway. Certainly not for five years. I'm picking that this particular line is going to unstraighten within months. It might go Linux's way, It might go Microsoft's way."

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