"It's worth considering the implications of the IDC Server
Operating Environments Market Forecast and Analysis 2000-2004
report that we looked at last week. The numbers point to something
important that might not be apparent at first sight."
"If you were to simple-mindedly extrapolate the IDC numbers
forward, you'd expect to see Linux server numbers go past Windows
some time in 2005 or 2006. But that's a long-term projection. As
the economist John Maynard Keynes is supposed to have said, "in the
long-term, we're all dead anyway."
"Of course real world markets rarely operates by such simple
mechanisms as straight-line projections. That's particularly true
when there are real live people, with all kinds of motivations able
to act in ways that influence the numbers. More to the point,
straight-line trends rarely hold for very long anyway. Certainly
not for five years. I'm picking that this particular line is going
to unstraighten within months. It might go Linux's way, It might go
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