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Jan 07, 2000, 07:42 (1 Talkback[s])
(Other stories by Gary Lawrence Murphy)

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"With GNU on Linux systems, we have an opportunity, but it is just that. Without being truly ready, we can well do ourselves damage by pushing too hard too soon (just like childbirth, for those who know it). Until we not only have the goods, the word-processor, the browser, the database and spreadsheet, but we also have these in a form that captures the experience and expectations which people already possess, a big media splash is a dangerous thing...."

"Should we persist in inventing and perfecting mass-appeal Linux systems even if we cannot 'succeed' in the market until all of us are ready? The answer, of course, is 'yes', but with a mind to the principle of Industrial Time Lags. Fortunately, these lags are predictable, and for those planning to ramp up for a Linux service industry infrastructure, this news might save your life...."

"The upshot of all this is that we cannot expect to see Linux in the mainstream today, or even next year, at least not in the same way that we see other platforms. This is not a prophesy of doom, it is not FUD, it is just the way it is in our industry: Those who push the 5-year lag are banging into a brick wall, which is ok so long as you know that this is what you are doing. Walls do fall and won't if no one bangs into them; it is only frustrating and depressing if you think that you should be going faster."

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