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TechnologyEvaluation.com: Red Hat's Linux Domination Weakens

Sep 14, 2000, 12:00 (5 Talkback[s])
(Other stories by R. Krause)

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"As with the server hardware market, the Linux market is starting to consolidate. Red Hat is still the clear leader, but the "second three" (SuSE, Caldera, TurboLinux) have closed the gap slightly. Of course, the growth rates of the second three, although tremendous, are unsustainable (unless the Linux market matches those rates). We expect Red Hat to maintain a 40+ % share (using IDC's metrics) of the Linux market through 2001. We also expect Corel to drop off the radar screen by then, due to it's miniscule market share, weakened financial position, and organization turmoil (esp. the resignation of CEO Mike Cowpland). We believe MandrakeSoft will still be a presence in Europe, although we do not believe it will make significant inroads into the US."

"The 'fly in the ointment' is that the market share figures are largely based on the server market. Linux still has only a single-digit market share in the desktop space. When/if Linux gains significant desktop market share (greater than 15%), we expect some shifting of share percentages. Based on TEC's analysis (see Caldera eDesktop Edges Out Microsoft Windows 2000 in Functionality), we expect Caldera to challenge Red Hat for desktop market share...."

"As mentioned earlier, TEC's WebTESS software indicates that Caldera's eDesktop functionality may make it a better choice for a desktop OS than Red Hat Linux 6.2, although we believe Red Hat has the edge in service/support. (This does not imply that SuSE or TurboLinux are inferior -- merely that they were not rated in the mentioned report.)"

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