“App providers want to develop for platforms that are being
used. Windows NT is already out there and will remain a suitable OS
for many applications. Linux installations are now in sufficient
quantities to merit developers to, at the very least, port their
existing products if not to start treating Linux as a platform of
choice. Meanwhile Windows 2000 faces an uphill struggle, against
Linux on the one side and NT on the other.
End user organisations will only move to Windows 2000 if there
is sufficient reason to do so. Unlike Windows NT, which rode the
coat tails of the client server revolution, W2K requires a
migration from the installed operating system base. Any benefits of
the migration must outweigh their costs – benefits will be measured
in terms of new applications which cannot be run on existing
platforms, including NT. If Microsoft does not have the
application companies on its side, W2K will find itself lacking
sufficient reasons, in terms of convincing ‘killer apps,’ for end
users to migrate. While it is waiting for its market to
materialise, Windows 2000 may find itself submerged beneath the
rising tide of Linux.”