” ‘Until the most popular applications, or ones that look
exactly like them, are available [on Linux], consumers won’t
consider it,’ says IDC Linux analyst Dan Kusnetzky. ‘Until
that hurdle is overcome, it makes Linux of only marginal
interest.’ That’s a sentiment echoed by Peter Hortensius,
director of technology development in the personal systems group at
International Business Machines (IBM). “It’s the applications,
stupid,’ he says. “Hitting Joe Mainstream is going to require real
work.’ “
“But price and product quality are only half the battle — no
matter how vocally nerd messiah Linus Torvalds and millions of
Linux adherents clamor. As IDC’s Kusnetzky points out, consumers
will have to be able to get all of their applications on Linux —
not just office productivity software — before they will consider
switching. And as IBM’s Hortensius says, people who are comfortable
and trained on Microsoft Office will be loath to switch unless
compelled to do so.”
“A second — and far more speculative — possibility has to do
with a breakup of Microsoft. The theory goes that Microsoft could
be split into operating systems and application divisions, which
would create quite an opportunity for Linux companies (though,
conversely, it could hurt makers of Linux office packages). Right
now, Microsoft uses its applications to drive the sales of its
operating systems. (Wanna use MS Office? Well, pal, ya need
Windows.) But a separate Microsoft applications company might not
feel so beholden. It might then — gasp! — make Office available
on Linux.
‘If it were split up, I’d expect to see [MS Office for Linux] in
a heartbeat,’ says Derek Burney, Corel’s executive vice president
of engineering. ‘Corel welcomes that because it would let us
compete application to application.’ “