“Had Windows 2000 arrived 18 months ago, perhaps Linux and
the whole open source movement would never have become more than an
interesting offbeat idea. On the other hand, were Windows 2000
to be delayed another 18 months, surely many customers would choose
to look elsewhere. But right now, it looks like we’re in for a
pretty fair fight. There’s plenty of talent, money, and opportunity
on both sides.
My own view, however, is that Microsoft will increasingly find
itself swimming against the tide. Ever since the arrival of the
minicomputer in the 1960s, there has been a natural and healthy
competition between the capabilities of centralized and distributed
systems. The PC represented the high-water mark of the latter; the
Web symbolizes the resurgence of the former. The combination of
order-of-magnitude leaps in bandwidth, the open source movement and
the economics of a billion-user Web will inevitably position
Windows 2000 as part of an increasingly obsolete order.
More specifically, I believe that small businesses, e-mail and
Web hosting will help turn customers away from running their own
servers. The Internet will help launch millions of new business all
around the world; these companies will find it relatively easy to
skip most of the Wintel server experience and go straight to
application service providers.”