“Linux acceptance will continue to accelerate, initially in
strong niche roles until it scales well enough for broader
enterprise applications. Thereafter, Linux revenue will be governed
by average server configuration size, average system pricing, DBMS
scalability, vendor support/services and IS organization buy-in. We
raised our Linux projections by an average of 25 percent in 2003
through 2004 over the previous forecast due to increased vendor
commitments and contributions. Linux shipped revenue in 2005 will
approach 20 percent of the revenue of Unix and 17 percent of that
of Windows.”
“While substantial progress will occur, Linux will still
face challenges in displacing mature, well-established OS
environments that continue to benefit from the research and
development resources of Microsoft, Sun Microsystems,
Hewlett-Packard and IBM. After a gradual ramp-up through 1H01,
Windows 2000 market share will rise sharply as NT v.4 migrations
accelerate along with new server deployments, nearly doubling in
shipments from 2001 to 2004. Much of the beneficial backlash Linux
has gained at Windows NT’s expense will dissipate by 2002, forcing
the Linux community to refocus and re-energize its campaign for
wide corporate acceptance.”
“Unix consolidation will accelerate as more users seek
improvements in total cost of ownership by reducing the number of
Unix variants through competitive bids aimed at the top market
share leaders, although special-purpose systems for continuous
computing and data warehousing (e.g., Compaq Computer’s NonStop,
Stratus Computer’s Continuum, NCR’s Teradata) will remain
reasonably profitable niches. The compound annual growth rate of
3.1 percent reflects the shifting balance to modular,
commodity-based servers, including the introduction of high-volume
IA-64 processors in NUMA architectures. Continued 30 percent to 40
percent price/performance improvements will enable consolidation of
distributed systems (in ratios of one application to one server) to
higher-end, domain-based servers through better load balancing and
workload management.”