By Brian Proffitt
Managing Editor
When a Microsoft executive dismisses Linux out of hand, I tend
to wonder if he or she is stuck in some kind of time warp, where
they think that it’s 1999 and Linux is still some sort of hobbyist
platform. Yet, that’s what happened Wednesday at a Microsoft
partner conference in Queensland, Australia.
Now, because of the International Date Line, it was actually on
Tuesday for me, so I know right away that there is some bit of
temporal confusion going on. But this is a man-made conceit to try
to keep the time zones making sense, and in any case it only
distorts time by about a day–not five years.
When Paul Roworth, Microsoft Australia’s Platform Strategy
Manager, told his company’s partners that the Linux threat was
really nothing more than sensationalism and media hype, my initial
reaction was rolling my eyes and wondering why such blatant
statements aren’t laughed right out of whatever building they’re
in. But as I read the story again, I realized that, like many good
pieces of propaganda, there’s a little bit of truth to what Roworth
was saying.
See, when you say that the threat of Linux towards Microsoft is
the result of hype and sensationalism, there is some validity in
that statement. After all, while no one can take away all of the
fantastic and innovative (as opposed to InnovativeTM)
technological achievements of Linux, some of its success is due to
hype.
I realize that to many, hype is a four-letter word. But hype,
like many forms of communication, can be used for good, not just
evil. It all depends on the message. Linux has become, for good or
ill, quite the media darling these days. Really. While Linux Today
has realized for years the potential interest in Linux technology,
the mainstream media is realizing that a lot of their readers have
no small interest in open source as well.
Think about it. You write a positive article on Linux. The
community picks it up and shares it. They like you. They come back
to see what else you will write. Your publisher is happy.
Or, you write a negative article on Linux. The community picks
it up and shares it. They hate you. They come back to see what else
you will write, all while sending you tons of interesting mail. You
are hiding under your desk, but your publisher is still happy.
Now, I want to be clear–I am not trying to say that good/bad PR
is the only reason Linux has succeeded. But it certainly played at
least a small role. After all, I am sure that somewhere out there
in the Ether, someone has invented the Greatest Operating System in
the World–an OS that makes Windows look like an abacus and perhaps
even Linux look like a calculator. But, because the word on this
Super OS has not gotten out, we may never be aware of its
existence.
At this point, you might think that I would spend the rest of
the article extoling the virtues of a free press, the joys of
marketing, etc. No, instead I want to turn my attention back to
Microsoft. Because right now they are facing their own hype
challenge.
Longhorn, the next big Windows thing, is scheduled for release
(according to an
announcement made today) in 2006. Microsoft is looking at a
huge challenge to keep users and developers sticking with XP
technology for abother two years. Originally, that was going to be
four years, with a 2008 release, but the Redmond Gang has opted to
cut key features from the next-generation client operating system,
planning to deliver them separately and later. For the Windows
“Longhorn” Server operating system, Microsoft is shooting for
2007.
Can you imagine? The same XP software platform, released in
2001, still around in 2006. That means (and this really gets my
goat) that my oldest daughter, currently in middle school, will be
using computers with XP running on them when she is in high school.
Unless, of course, our school system sees the light in the
intervening time. Here’s hoping, but I’ve met our school board, and
my hope is thin on the ground.
I really don’t see how they can do it. I read an
article on CNET yesterday that said now that SP2 is out, the
company is now focusing on XP holiday sales. How will that work?
“Put XP under your Xmas tree” ads? With all the publicly known
security holes, that’s like saying “Put a Petri dish of influenza
under your Xmas tree.” Criminetly, as my grandmother used to
say.
Yet, do it they must. And I can think of at least two ways they
will try to do hype XP. The first is a gimme: tear down the
competition. This is an old play from their playbook, and whether
you like them or not, you’ve got to admit that Microsoft is really
good at this. I think the anti-Linux rhetoric is only going to get
stronger. But it may only be anti-Linux–not necessarily anti-open
source.
I have a theory that while Microsoft is going to be beating Tux
over the head, it may continue to embrace the concept of open
source. Well, at least its version. To do this, they will have to
differentiate between Linux and OSS and,since its a fine
distinction, I am sure they will be creative about it. Keeping a
positive spin on their idea of open source will give the customers
and their development shops more of a reason to stick with
Windows.
The second play, which is why I think Microsoft will not be so
broadly against open source, is that Microsoft will be trying to
create its own version of a community. The Linux community works,
they have noted, and they really want their own. This is not idle
speculation, either. I know of several plans to create sites and
forums with a sense of community in mind.
Building a community, however artificial, could pay off for
Microsoft. Communities build relationships, connections, contacts,
and resources. Every Linux developer can take advantage of this
community, and Microsoft wants its own developer partners to have
the same advantages.
This sounds good, on paper. I will be interested to see how it
turns out.
So yes, the Linux threat is a bit hyped. But there’s a lot more
substance in that hype then what we’re going to hear out of Redmond
over the next two years.