“As with the server hardware market, the Linux market is
starting to consolidate. Red Hat is still the clear leader, but the
“second three” (SuSE, Caldera, TurboLinux) have closed the gap
slightly. Of course, the growth rates of the second three, although
tremendous, are unsustainable (unless the Linux market matches
those rates). We expect Red Hat to maintain a 40+ % share (using
IDC’s metrics) of the Linux market through 2001. We also expect
Corel to drop off the radar screen by then, due to it’s miniscule
market share, weakened financial position, and organization turmoil
(esp. the resignation of CEO Mike Cowpland). We believe
MandrakeSoft will still be a presence in Europe, although we do not
believe it will make significant inroads into the US.”
“The ‘fly in the ointment’ is that the market share figures are
largely based on the server market. Linux still has only a
single-digit market share in the desktop space. When/if Linux gains
significant desktop market share (greater than 15%), we expect some
shifting of share percentages. Based on TEC’s analysis (see Caldera
eDesktop Edges Out Microsoft Windows 2000 in Functionality), we
expect Caldera to challenge Red Hat for desktop market
share….”
“As mentioned earlier, TEC’s WebTESS software indicates that
Caldera’s eDesktop functionality may make it a better choice for a
desktop OS than Red Hat Linux 6.2, although we believe Red Hat has
the edge in service/support. (This does not imply that SuSE or
TurboLinux are inferior — merely that they were not rated in the
mentioned report.)”