By Brian Proffitt
Managing Editor
In X months, Y days, and Z.something-something minutes, Longhorn
will arrive. So says the great Microsoft PR machine.
The Linux community is certainly aware of this big, new release.
The GNOME and Mozilla Foundations are confabbing like its the
coming of a war. The KDE developers are abuzz (at least, the ones
I’ve talked to). Novell seems to be getting onto a war-footing
about it, too.
Longhorn this, Longhorn that. Only Star Wars Episode II has
gotten more hype so long before a release, it seems. And, I
suspect, when the product comes out people will be just as
disappointed.
Because, and maybe I am going out on a limb here, who really
gives a flying-you-know-what about Longhorn?
At this point, some wiseacre realist will say “about 95 percent
of the world’s installed desktops, that’s who.” And I would shuffle
my feet, think for a second, and come out with a more relevant
question: “why should the Linux community give a
flying-you-know-what about Longhorn?”
As I see it, there are two ways the upcoming Longhorn release
will go, and neither of them really will make a big difference to
Linux and open source software.
The first way is the one I hinted at earlier: that after all of
the hype, Longhorn turns out to be just another version of Windows
XP. Same basic interface with all of the same bugs and maybe some
better-looking eye candy. It has happened before, and I was a
closer witness than some.
In 1998 I was working for Sams Publishing as an editor, and I
managed to convince my boss that I needed to attend a Window 98
launch event in Chicago, obstensively to find potential authors for
the second wave of Windows 98 books we wanted to publish. (Yes,
I’ve walked the dark side. Please keep your holy water to yourself,
it still stings.) Actually, I wanted to visit some old friends for
dinner in that fine city, but who’s telling?
The event was huge. Glitzy. I remember lots of balloons and a
live feed from Mr. Gates himself. The world was about to change, we
were promised. Well, it did, I suppose, but not quite the way we
expected. Sure, we got great eye candy (for the time), but we also
got more worms and viruses that we can shake a stick at. Even after
the also much-vaunted Windows XP came out years later.
For all of the hype and glitz that has come out of Redmond, I
have only been impressed with one product from Microsoft, and
that’s Flight Simulator. Everything else has just been another
version of tools I have used before, and usually with more problems
than the prior version.
The second way the Longhorn release is going to go: the product
sheds the problems of the old Windows codebase like a butterfly out
of a rotten cocoon. It is secure. It is easy to manage. It does all
the things it is supposed to and does them well. Seems farfetched,
doesn’t it?
But if this is so farfetched, why are the various open source
development groups so up in arms about the coming of Longhorn?
Because they, like me, cannot shake the niggling doubt that
Microsoft might get its collective act together and finally produce
something worth putting a price tag on.
So again, I ask the question: so what?
If Microsoft’s Longhorn turns out to be the greatest thing since
slice bread, how will that hurt Linux? The answer is, it won’t.
People so inclined to use Linux now won’t flip over. People who are
on the fence may have a harder choice to make, at least initially.
But I am counting on the one thing that will ultimately keep Linux
attractive to anyone who wants a stable desktop for home or work:
Microsoft.
No matter how good (or how bad) Longhorn is, Microsoft will
still be Microsoft. They will still come up with lots of new and
creative ways to get the most money out of customers for the least
amount of effort. Licensing will still be restrictive. And, unless
some sort of absolute miracle happens, the source code will still
be closed. Longhorn may be a better offering than Windows past, but
it will still be offered by one of the most opportunistic companies
in the world.
And people will still be repelled by that.
There are, some would remind me, technical concerns about
Longhorn’s arrival. Closed formats, new patents, and all sorts of
other tricks may be coming that will cause trouble for those who
want Linux to interoperate with Windows. I would agree with those
points, and remind people that closed formats and patent wars may
bring Microsoft more trouble than they bargained for in terms of
public perception. If Linux’ community can be ready for it.
Of all of the potential threats Microsoft can bring to Linux, I
think Longhorn should be the least of the community’s concerns. I
personally am much more concerned about the potential for endless
patent litigation from Redmond. If Microsoft can play Linux
developers off to the public as a bunch of idea-stealing codes
pirates, it won’t matter if such litgation is winnable. In my
deepest, most conspiritoral thoughts, I wonder if the whole SCO/IBM
lawsuit was just a dry-run to see how such a PR battle would
fare.
As always, I freely admit that I may be too short-sighted about
this, and that there are legitimate concerns about the coming of
Longhorn. I, for the life of me, cannot see any–this does not mean
they are not there.
Microsoft will try to go toe-to-toe with Linux with Longhorn.
But the moment the fight does not go their way, look out for the
sucker punch from the guy in the blue butterfly suit.