“But before I do, let me issue a strong warning: I am not an
economist. Nor do I play one on television. I don’t invest in
stocks, bonds, annuities, or mutual funds. The only PE I’m familiar
with is physical education, and I’m not even good at that. My idea
of morning exercise is to reach over and hit the 10-minute snooze
button three times. So you can dismiss what I’m about to predict
entirely if you like, because it is strictly intuition….”
“I’m not as confident about high-tech stocks in general, though.
First of all, the analysis by Bill Parish is very convincing. And I
have other reasons to suspect Microsoft stock will take a tumble
and bring other companies with it.”
“Just do the math. Microsoft is betting the company on
Windows 2000. Windows 2000 Advanced Server is $3,999 for 25 users.
Add $5,397 for 75 additional user licenses and 100 client copies of
Windows 2000 Professional at $319 each, and that brings your total
to $41,296 for one server and 100 users. Contrast that to Linux or
FreeBSD, both of which cost about $50 for unlimited users. Let’s
see: $41,296 for 100 users or $50 for unlimited users — which
shall I choose?“