“1. It’s too easy to just say that kernel version 2.4 will
officially be released in 2001, so I’ll go beyond that. I’ll
predict that it kicks Windows 2000’s butt in benchmarks on
multiprocessor and multiple-NIC machines. And, of course, it will
do the same on uniprocessor systems with only a single network
interface card as well.”
“2. Given the result of the presidential election, I predict
that the Microsoft appeal of Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson’s
rulings will result in his findings of law being overturned, but
his findings of fact will stand. The breakup of Microsoft will be
abandoned on appeal, and the lower court will be ordered to come up
with new, less drastic remedies. Under the Bush administration, the
DOJ will lose its zeal for pursuing the case to a just conclusion,
and no substantial or effective remedies will ever be implemented.
But that outcome will in no way impede Linux’s growing popularity.
It’s simply too late to save the dynasty now, regardless of what
King George might want to do for King Bill.”
“3. 2001 will be a year of consolidation within the Linux
industry. Not only will the number of distributions shrink through
attrition and merger, but the number of hardware and service firms
will be reduced as well. The biggest wedding will be between Red
Hat and VA Linux, as the two seek to become the IBM of Linux: a
single source for hardware, software, and support. Not to be
outdone, SuSE and Atipa will follow suit to keep pace with their
fedora-wearing rivals. The two entities formed by those megamergers
will duke it out to become the Linux superstar around the
globe.”