By Brandioch Conner
You’ve seen them before. The titles vary but the material all
boils down to two topics: “Linux sucks because I had problems
getting to work right” and “Linux sucks because it doesn’t have
have ‘x’ so it will never be accepted.” The former usually has the
person trying to install Linux on a new laptop while the latter is
usually about different installers or Microsoft Office. They may be
right, but I don’t think so.
These comments usually focus on what I will call the “home
desktop segment” or the “gamer segment” and completely miss the
characteristics of those segments. Aunt Agnes (in the home desktop
segment) is not going to change her OS on a whim. This is also the
segment that collects all the spyware and gives rise to the hordes
of spam zombies.
Now, a tiny bit of history. Microsoft did not start off with a
server OS. They provided the OS for IBM’s PC. They got into the
server room via the desktop and the desktop is still their bastion.
Even today, most people become familiar with Microsoft’s desktop
products long before they work with any of Microsoft’s server
products.
Linux is taking the opposite approach. Linux is starting in the
server room and slowly moving into the desktop segments. Emphasis
on the “slowly” right now. It takes a lot of effort to
move into a monopoly and Microsoft still has their desktop monopoly
(yes they do, the court said they did, and the appeals court did
not contradict that). In order to understand this better, you have
to break down the various characteristics of the desktop and group
them into identifiable segments. I’ve broken them down into four
segments (server, corp/gov office, home desktop, and gamer/power
user) based upon the characteristics I will identify (including
their incentives to run Linux).
Server Segment
Server Characteristics
Dedicated admin: Someone is responsible for
that server. Someone is called when it crashes. Someone installed
the OS and app(s). Even if the admin is nothing more than a
consultant/contractor who is brought in when something goes
horribly wrong.
Many users per box: When a server crashes,
multiple people get annoyed, all at the same time. Then someone
contacts the admin or power cycles it themselves (very scary
situation there).
Limited hardware selection: SCSI cards and
NIC’s and so forth are the basis of the server. You will not be
plugging your new digital camera into the server. You will not try
to put your server in “sleep” or “hibernate” mode. You do not sync
your PDA by plugging it into your server.
Admin installs the OS and apps: The OEM might
include a “quickstart” CD or something, but the server usually
arrives without any OS or apps on it. The admin has to choose the
OS, how it will be configured and so on and what apps will be
installed and how they will be configured.
Server Incentives
Functionality: If it doesn’t do what you want,
why would the admin be running it? Lose that and get something that
does do what you want (provided such functionality actually
exists).
Stability: Remember the “Many users per box”
characteristic? Stable servers mean less stress for admin (and
power cycling the box is a good way to test the MTBF rating).
Price: I list this last because if it doesn’t
have the functionality you need and the stability then even “free”
(no cost) is too expensive. The cost of the licenses is only a
portion of the “total” cost of the system, but it is a portion and
if it has the functionality and stability, then you should see
“economy of scale” kick in.
You should see why Linux would make its initial gains in this
segment. The functionality of the LAMP stack and Linux’s rock solid
stability (and low price) put it at the Internet edge of many
companies. From there, it took on email, database, authentication
and other functionality. Now there is no function that you cannot
find on a Linux server. I said “function,” not “application.”
Running Active Directory on a Linux server will present problems,
but Novell will sell you eDirectory for Linux. So Linux can provide
all the functionality requirements for the server market and
Linux’s market share in this segment keeps increasing.
Corp/Gov Office Segment
Corp/Gov Office Characteristics
Dedicated admin: While there isn’t the same
ratio of admins to workstations as there is in the server segment,
there are specially trained (it is hoped) technicians who will fix
any problems with the workstations.
One user per box: As opposed to the server
situation, there is only one user per workstation in this segment.
Because of this, the “stability” aspect is not as important
(although it is still a factor).
Standardized desktop box: This is another one
of those “economy of scale” things. It is far easier to admin 1,000
workstations if they are all the same than it is to admin ten if
they are all different (personal experience). Corporations and
government agencies tend to buy/lease in large numbers.
Admin installs the OS and apps: The workstation
is configured to a standard that has been decided upon by those who
(supposedly) know best how to make it run the apps that are
installed. The person actually using the box will not be installing
any apps or upgrades or changing the OS.
Training for users: Since most users will
probably not know how to use the specific apps (other than mine
sweeper and maybe MS Office), they will need some type of training
by the company. This training should not be much different between
a Windows box and a Linux box.
Corp/Gov Office Incentives
Functionality: Same as in the server segment.
If it doesn’t run what you want, why not switch to something that
does? This isn’t so much a “not present” in Windows as a
“comparable functionality exists in both systems.” On the corp/gov
desktop, there isn’t much functionality that isn’t already
available for Windows. This is usually a limiting factor for Linux
on the desktop in this segment because the systems have evolved
over time to their present state. That means a lot of cruft and
baggage that has to be handled in some fashion. Just the presence
of those “legacy” apps will not rule out a Linux desktop, but
migrating that functionality will add to the migration costs.
Stability: Not as important as in a server, but
it has to have a certain degree of stability (no hourly crashes).
As long as they don’t crash between their regular cycles (nightly
or weekly), they are stable “enough.”
Price: Corporations and governments are usually
looking for ways to cut costs. If one system has the functionality
and stability necessary, but costs less, then it’s all about the
pain of migration.
Potentially ideological: This can be the most
important one for non-US entities. Licensing Windows from Microsoft
means sending money to Bill in Redmond. Even if some of it stays in
the local economy, simple math will show that more of it would stay
if they went with Linux (unless they hire Microsoft programmers
from Redmond to write the Linux apps). Even if the other incentives
are not sufficient to justify a Linux migration, the ideology might
be enough.
I believe this will be the segment that Linux takes over after
the server segment. The first reason is that it offers huge license
savings, but not in the obvious way. Even if the cost per desktop
is the same as for Windows, the money will be paid to local
developers (local for that government) who will pay taxes on it and
pay their mortgages with it and so forth. So the government will be
getting back a larger portion of it in taxes than they would if it
just went to Redmond.
The second reason is that the lessons learned and technology
gained from each departmental migration can be applied to the next
departmental migration. This means that the second department to
migrate will already know what workstations work well with Linux
and where to go for Linux ports of their apps (any that weren’t
already ported).
The final reason (and to me, the most important) is for 100%
open formats for their documents. So it won’t matter if the
government uses one word processor and one of their vendors uses a
different one, as long as they both have the filters to handle that
format.
Home Desktop Segment
Home Desktop Characteristics
Limited support from vendor for limited time:
The OEM may provide support, or may not. Certain companies are
notorious for trying to find any way to deny any responsibility for
providing support. If Windows came pre-installed then Microsoft
will not provide “free” support. This was a great move on
Microsoft’s part and it saves them a TON of money in support calls.
Linux vendors will not> be able to duplicate that
trick.
One user per box: See above.
No standardization of hardware: Almost
everything out there will be found in this segment. If someone made
it and sold it, someone in this segment bought it. If you grab 100
home machines at random, you can have 100 different video cards,
sound cards, NICs, and so forth. This is the exact opposite of
“economy of scale.”
OS was pre-installed by OEM: The hard work was
already done. The drivers were found and (hopefully) tested before
the user could even order the box. The OEM can provide support
because the OEM knows how it was installed and what the components
were. Good luck getting that with an after-market OS.
Microsoft monopoly: This means that those weird
components will come with Windows drivers. They may be sucky
drivers and they may cause problems (BSOD’s), but the devices will
appear in Device Manager and it will at least appear that something
good is happening.
Multimedia: Video and sound drivers–the
current bane of Linux. If the home users cannot watch the cute
video clips or hear the funny sounds, they will not be happy with
Linux. So the video and sound devices have to be supported and the
distribution has to have the codex necessary for playing file.
Home Desktop Incentives
None: If it didn’t come pre-installed, it isn’t
going to dent this market. No matter how easy it is to install or
how pretty or how secure or how stable or how… whatever. This
segment will not even install anti-virus apps (yes, there are
exceptions).
Important Note: If someone is willing to be the dedicated admin
for a home desktop user, then none of this applies and the
relationship becomes more like the “Corp/Gov” example above. The
“admin” chooses the distribution, checks the hardware, installs the
OS, configures the apps and shows Mom/Grandma how to use it and is
(most importantly) available for any questions and problems.
Gamer/Power User Segment
Gamer/Power User Characteristics
No support: These are the people who will
upgrade their video cards, overclock their processors and such.
They’re on their own for troubleshooting.
One user per box: See above.
Microsoft monopoly: See above.
Multimedia: See above.
Latest hardware/toys/games: This is the biggest
problem with this segment. First off, they get the stuff before the
Linux developers do so there’s really no way for drivers to be
included in Linux. Secondly, the stuff they get is version 1.0
stuff and usually hasn’t had all the bugs worked out.
Gamer/Power User Incentives
None: This segment is all about the vendors.
Did the vendor release a good Linux port of their game? Did the
vendor include good Linux drivers for that video card? What is the
vendor’s motivation for releasing anything for Linux? Usually, the
vendor is motivated by sales and profit. The Windows desktop market
is still at least 10x larger than Linux’s so that at least gives
the opportunity for 10x more sales if they focus on Windows.
So, when some journalist complains that Linux sucks because it
will not install on his brand new laptop (90% of the components are
correctly detected and configured but the wireless card doesn’t
work and the video card doesn’t have hardware acceleration) it is
clear where he missed the mark. He is complaining that Linux is not
ready for the fourth segment when it is still growing into the
second segment.
The same with someone saying that Linux will not succeed until
it has a better way for the user to install apps. The first and
second segments do not allow the user to install apps and the third
segment is blocked by the mountain known as “Not
Pre-Installed.”
Each of these segments will have “low hanging fruit.” That means
that there are certain people who will have no problem installing
and running Linux as a home desktop even though most corporations
have not adopted it in that role yet. And in each segment, certain
sites will have a very easy time of migrating while others will
have a very difficult and/or expensive task if they choose to
migrate. This depends upon how tightly they are tied to specific
apps and the cost of migrating their data from those apps.